Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo has delivered an analysis of the recent political realignments involving the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), Keyamo says the ADC’s formation and the influx of politicians into the party represent a strategic maneuver primarily benefiting the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Festus Keyamo wrote:
What happened earlier today with the movement of the so-called ‘coalition’ into the ADC is the greatest factor that has strengthened the APC ahead of the 2027 elections. Let me explain.

By law, you cannot operate from, or belong to, two or multiple political parties, so it is safe to say that their open declaration for ADC today is a clear abandonment of their previous parties. In fact, belonging to two political parties is a disqualification ground in an election.

Therefore, the emergence of ADC as presently constituted marks the formal dismemberment of the PDP, hitherto Nigeria’s strongest opposition Party. The majority of the old guard in the PDP (who have apparently lost control of the Party) have been pushed out of the party by the Younger Turks within the PDP. That is why the gathering today was a conglomerate of ‘former this’ and ‘former that’ of the PDP. No matter how you look at it, this is just Atiku’s faction of PDP in desperate search for the 2027 Presidential ticket – nothing more, nothing less.

The other addition to the so-called ‘coalition’ is a sprinkling of APC members who actually worked against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the last election and one or two APC leaders who lost their constituencies to opposition parties in 2023. Their movement, therefore, takes NOTHING away from the APC. It is actually better for the APC because it is just a case of totally extracting the germ that was eating the cola nut from within.

The person whom the old, cunning guards want to take for a ride in all of this is Peter Obi. They want his votes, but don’t want to give him their Presidential ticket, because this is Atiku’s show simpliciter. That is why David Mark is the interim Chairman. Those who know politics know what I am saying. But if you do not give Peter Obi the Presidential ticket, you lose his supporters. It is as simple as that. And how can you make someone who won two regions in the last election (South-East and South-South) a running mate to the person who won only one region (North-East)?

Therefore, when the dust settles, you will discover that PDP and the Labour Party have lost something, the ADC have only gained something like a caricature, but the APC has lost ABSOLUTELY nothing.

What this all means is that since the 2023 elections, the APC have become stronger, whilst the opposition parties have been fragmented and have become weaker. Those who have defected to the APC since 2023 (the Governors, Senators, Honourable members, etc) put side-by-side with a small handful who have left the APC, who would you rather have in your ranks? That is where lies the key to the whole analysis.

For now, let us face governance and allow them to exercise their constitutional right to associate and assemble.